Mathematics · Quantitative finance · Strategy

Turning probability theory into business decisions.

I’m Pavel Zapolskii, CEO of an early-stage tech startup and a UK Global Talent visa holder. I’ve spent seven years applying mathematics across tier-1 product companies and financial institutions worldwide.

Pavel Zapolskii
Fig. 01Pavel Zapolskii · CEO
  • 7 years applying mathematics
  • 4+ years at tier-1 IT product companies
  • 4+ years with financial institutions worldwide
  • MSc Mathematics, Probability Theory
  • $150,000 ARR from a SaaS product I built before ChatGPT and Claude
  • 10+ successful end-to-end integrations of complex algorithmic systems
  • Over $1 million under management, with a proven four-year track record
  • 20+ mentees helped to land jobs and plan their careers

I work where mathematics meets money.

Trained in probability theory, I like problems where uncertainty is the point:

  • Experiments read correctly
  • Forecasts that hold up
  • Portfolios that survive bad days
Galton board: 200 balls bounce at random through 12 rows of pegs and pile up into a bell curve.
Fig. 02Randomness, organised.

What I help with

  1. Decisions driven by math

    Models and forecasts that inform strategy, built to answer a business question rather than to win a benchmark.

    Keywords: models / forecasts / strategy

  2. Tech-heavy products

    Building tech-heavy products end to end: technical product management, data-driven growth and the analytics that make every step measurable.

    Keywords: management / analytics / go-to-market

  3. Markets and portfolios

    A quantitative view on financial and market fit for a portfolio: options and volatility, bonds, equities, commodities, crypto.

    Keywords: algo trading / brokerage / portfolio management

  4. Advice and coaching

    Business consulting, career advice for people in data and quant roles, and a global-markets perspective.

    Keywords: consulting / careers / global markets

Long-form notes on data science and financial markets.

Published in Towards AI, DataDrivenInvestor and Coinmonks.

  1. Hunting for Mispriced Options: Building an Arbitrage Volatility Bot with Interactive Brokers

    DataDrivenInvestor

    • Algorithmic trading
    • Options
  2. How to Use Only 1 Metric in AB Tests

    Towards AI

    • A/B testing
    • Product analytics
  3. Time Series Simulations: Signature Transformation Method in Python. Part 2

    Towards AI

    • Time series
    • Statistics
  4. Amping up Forecasts Time Series: Signature Transformation Method in Python. Part 1

    Towards AI

    • Forecasting
    • Machine learning
  5. Gold investing hacks: the economic prospects of fear

    Coinmonks

    • Gold
    • Portfolio management
  6. Essentials for Option Trading with Python: Implied Volatility and Greeks

    Medium

    • Derivatives
    • Quantitative finance
  7. Trading Bonds: A Guide for Risk Management and Profit Generation

    DataDrivenInvestor

    • Bonds
    • Risk management

Newest first All articles on Medium

Let’s talk

Consulting, coaching, career advice or a conversation about global markets: send me an email or a message on LinkedIn.